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Diagnostyka SADiagnostyka expects volumes and test price growth in 2026, though y/y growth may be lower
Listed medical diagnostic service provider Diagnostyka expects revenue growth of more than 20 percent in 2025, an increase in the average price of tests of low-to-mid teens, and test volumes rising by high single digits, company representatives told a videoconference. In 2026, the management board also anticipates increases in test prices and volumes, but the pace of growth is expected to be lower than in 2025.
"We have slightly raised our forecasts for the full year compared with the second quarter. As for year-on-year revenues, I think we will be talking about low-to-mid 20s growth, roughly in line with what we have been observing after nine months," deputy CEO Pawel Chytla said during a videoconference.
"The average test price should be low-to-mid teens - after nine months we have 14 percent, and I believe the full-year figure will be similar. Test volumes should be high single digits, after nine months we have 9 percent and expect roughly the same for the full year," he added.
In the third quarter of 2025, Diagnostyka recorded an increase in test volumes to 43 million, up 10.9 percent year on year. At the same time, the average test price rose by 14.5 percent year on year, driven by a favourable product mix and the consolidation of imaging-diagnostics companies.
According to the presentation, for the whole of 2025 the group expects revenue from contracts with customers to increase by low-to-mid 20 percent year on year, the average test price to rise by low-to-mid teens, and test volumes by high single digits.
CAPEX excluding acquisitions is planned at PLN 130–170 million (EUR 30.6-40 mln) in 2025, with M&A CAPEX at PLN 80–100 million (EUR 18.8-23.5 mln).
Net debt/EBITDA is expected at 1.5–2.0.
In 2026 the management board also expects growth in both test prices and volumes, though at a slower pace than in 2025.
"On the one hand, the trends continue, but the scale of growth that surprised us positively this year will flatten. It will certainly be a few percentage points lower, especially regarding prices. So there will be growth, but slower than this year; the same applies to the number of tests - we still forecast an increase, but not as strong as this year," CEO Jakub Swadzba said.
Despite proposed changes to reimbursement levels in imaging diagnostics, the company remains optimistic about development in this segment.
The CEO noted prices were likely to fall by 6–10 percent, averaging about 8 percent, but expected synergies and profitability improvements to offset the impact.
He added that smaller hospital units would see lower margins but were not significantly, and that the group remained optimistic about imaging diagnostics, aiming for margins similar to laboratory diagnostics.
Diagnostyka reported that it has signed 16 contracts with the Polish national health fund, NFZ, to implement the Cervical Cancer Prevention programme, covering all provinces.
"We currently have PLN 5 million from this programme, so we will probably be talking about PLN 7-8 million this year, between PLN 5 million and 10 million for the full year," deputy CEO said.
The management board said it does not plan to raise the recommended percentage of profits allocated to dividends.
"Despite expected profit growth, we do not want to increase the dividend payout ratio. We intend to maintain our recommendation of around 50 percent," Swadzba said.
Regarding potentiall acquisitions, the group does not intend to change its strategy by seeking targets abroad.
"Only Poland remains in scope - this is the safest approach. We do not plan other acquisitions next year. We plan to increase acquisitions in imaging diagnostics," CEO concluded.
doa/ nl/ han/
