Poland's CPI inflation may exceed 4.5 pct y/y in September (opinion)
Poland's stats office GUS has confirmed its early estimate of August inflation at 4.3 percent year on year. Economists point to the persistently high growth in services prices as worrying. CPI may rise above 4.5 percent in September but should not exceed 5 percent by the end of the year.
Economists from the Polish Economic Institute PIE, reacting on GUS' newest data on CPI, wrote on X platform that they expect "inflation to rise above 4.5 percent in September."
"The unfreezing of energy prices and the increase in services prices will continue to push up the price index," they assessed.
At the same time, PIE's experts indicated that inflation at the end of the year "will be close to 4.5 percent."
"PPI indexes indicate that production costs are no longer declining in most EU countries, which will contribute to the rise in industrial goods prices. Rising industrial prices in the main trading partners will lead to higher import prices," they concluded.
The economists of ING BSK bank noted that "the persistence of services prices above 6 percent year on year and the lack of a downward trend in this area is worrying."
They added in the post on X that "the topic of rate cuts will not be considered by the MPC until 2025."
Economists at PKO BP lender also predicted the results reported by the stats office.
"We expect that by the end of the year, overall inflation should not exceed 5 percent year on year," they assessed on X.
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Poland's prices of consumer goods and services (Consumer Price Index, CPI) increased by 4.3 percent year on year and grew by 0.1 percent month on month in August, in line with earlier flash estimate, Poland's stats office GUS reported.
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