Poland's MPC member sees no big sources of concerns, but no grounds for rate cuts either
There are no significant sources of concerns from a monetary policy perspective, but the grounds for rate cuts are not there either, Poland's Monetary Policy Council member Joanna Tyrowicz assessed in a post on LinkedIn. In her view, if the latest macro data repeats, it may be time to stabilise rates at the current level.
"Overall: no breakthrough. No big sources of concern from a monetary policy perspective, but somehow the rationale for cuts is not there either (...)," MPC's Tyrowicz wrote.
She pointed out that the month-on-month inflation level remains high (we still do not have the April data), while assessing that if the CPI data remains stable with the data repeating, there "might be time for a 5.75 percent rate."
"Why? The current projection says that a rate of 5.75 percent with a probability of roughly 60 percent brings inflation to target. The current projection depends most heavily on (a) cooling the labour market and (b) not overheating demand," she explained.
From November 2023 to March 2025 (the latest available data), Tyrowicz had been requesting the 200 basis points rate hike at every MPC decision-making meeting, as the only member of the Council.
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