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Neuca SANeuca expects pharmacy wholesale market to grow by approx. 7-8 pct in 2025, 6-6.5 pct in 2026
Listed pharmaceutical group Neuca expects Poland's pharmacy wholesale market to grow by approximately 7-8 percent throughout 2025 and by 6-6.5 percent in 2026, management representatives told an investor chat.
"In the fourth quarter, we expect the wholesale market to grow at a rate of approximately 7-8 percent, which means that our outlook for the whole of 2025 is for a similar growth. In 2026, we anticipate market growth of 6.0-6.5 percent," Neuca representatives announced during the investor chat on Friday.
In the third quarter of 2025, Poland's pharmacy wholesale market grew by 7.9 percent year on year (8.2 percent cumulatively), reaching a value of PLN 12.3 billion (EUR 2.9 bln), i.e. almost PLN 36.8 billion (EUR 8.7 bln) cumulatively.
In the period from July to September 2025, the group's market share was 29.9 percent (unchanged in annual terms), and in the strategic area of independent pharmacies, it stood t 39.3 percent (up 1.6 percentage points year on year), which is the highest share in this segment in Neuca's history.
The group expects that in 2026, the independent pharmacy segment will grow, as will the group's share in this segment.
"Despite a slight decline in the share of the independent pharmacy segment in the overall pharmacy market, the independent pharmacy market continues to grow in terms of turnover. We predict that in 2026, the independent pharmacy segment will grow by over PLN 800 million (3.9 percent year on year), and our share in this segment should grow steadily," Neuca said.
The group reported in its quarterly report that the clinical trials segment achieved sales of PLN 342.6 million (EUR 60.65 mln) in the first three quarters of 2025, with an EBITDA loss of PLN 3.0 million (EUR 706,200).
Neuca pointed out that uncertainty on the part of drug manufacturers persists, mainly concerning the US clinical trials market, but this is affecting the entire trials market. The backlog for the SMO and CRO areas of the clinical trials segment at the end of September 2025 reached USD 357.5 million, an increase of 30.5 percent year on year.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Neuca expects the performance trends in the wholesale, manufacturing and medical operator segments to continue, while, in the company's view, a significant improvement in the clinical trials segment will have to wait.
In 2026, Neuca assumes that the value of development and replacement investments will be similar to annual depreciation. Apart from the clinical trials segment (approx. USD 40 million), it assumes acquisitions and the launch of new medical care facilities up to PLN 50 million (EUR 11.8 mln) per year.
The company has announced that Grzegorz Dzik will be appointed as CEO of Neuca as of January 1, 2026.
During the investor chat, Dzik announced that his intention is to continue the current dividend policy, which assumes an increase in dividend per share in the range of 10-15 percent and periodic share buybacks in order not to dilute earnings per share in connection with the issue of additional shares under the incentive programme for key managers.
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