January retail sales clearly above forecasts; durable goods sales rebound positive (opinion)
Poland's retail sales in January grew harder than market expectations, with 4.8 percent year-on-year growth against 1.5 percent forecast. One positive sign in the data is the rebound in durable goods sales, economists point out. The outlook for consumption in 2025 is relatively stable.
The chief analyst at Bank Pocztowy Monika Kurtek pointed out that the retail sales of goods at the beginning of this year gained clear momentum.
"The results turned out to be quite a bit higher [year on year - MI ed.] both than those recorded a month earlier and than the average market forecasts," she wrote in an e-mail to PAP Biznes.
"January is always a month of calming down just after the hectic December Christmas shopping season, and this is also confirmed in the data published today. All categories of retail sales, both nominally and in real terms, recorded month-on-month declines. What worked strongly against forecasts, however, was that the falls were quite a lot smaller than expected," she added.
Kurtek stressed that it is rather too early to draw conclusions that the Polish households have started to shed the cautious shopping attitude observed in the previous year and retail sales performance will now accelerate.
"It cannot be ruled out that households, fearing the arrival of various worrying news from around the world (...) or in the face of slightly accelerating inflation, decided to buy a little more at the beginning of the year (as it was a period of considerable sales) to reduce purchases later on. We will have to wait until the next monthly data for confirmation," she concluded.
As the ING BSK analysts pointed out, the consumption has returned to growth after the October 2024 flood slump.
"Durable goods categories, whose sales had been falling for many months, also joined in January. Compared to the weak 2024, the annual growth rates in sales of durable goods have clearly improved," they wrote in an e-mail sent to PAP Biznes.
"The start of the year brought a positive surprise in trade and signals of increased household purchasing activity," the experts added.
ING BSK analysts assessed that January data is a good prognosis for consumption growth in the first 2025, although, as they stressed, they remain cautious in their forecasts for the whole of 2025 due to slower growth in real disposable income than last year (slower wage growth, lower pension valorisation, rising inflation).
"Maintaining consumption growth at levels similar to or higher than last year will require households to draw on savings accumulated in 2024," they emphasised.
The analysts at mBank pointed out on X that "January retail sales (...) clearly beat the market consensus".
"This one [the consensus - MI ed.] seems to have been positioned relatively low, as the January result is up 0.6 percent month on month after deseasonalisation. On trend, a big breakthrough is definitely not in sight," they added.
In the view of mBank experts, the gap between sales and the real wage fund is slowly closing.
"Given that savings have already been largely made, it appears that the lack of further (rapid) build-up will be a mitigating factor for lower real wage growth. This draws a fairly positive picture for consumption this year," they assessed.
The economists at Polish Economic Institute (PIE) pointed to the commentary by Poland's stats office GUS to the January data, assessing that against this backdrop, growth in sales of non-durable goods was moderate.
"The outlook for consumption in 2025 should be relatively stable. The market consensus indicates that this will expand by 3.2 percent, a similar result to 2024. Current trends suggest a greater improvement in services, but the second half of the year should also be better for retail," the experts wrote on X.
The analysts at Pekao said that January data brought "plenty of positive details", while pointing out that the rebound in durable goods sales may be the most positive factor.
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Poland's retail sales in fixed prices increased in real terms by 4.8 percent year on year and fell by 17.3 percent month on month in January, the stats office GUS reported. Economists polled by PAP Biznes had expected January's retail sales to grow in real terms by 1.5 percent year on year and to decrease by 19.9 percent month on month.
January saw retail sales in current prices rising by 6.1 percent year on year. The experts had forecast 2.5 percent year-on-year growth in current prices.
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