Poland to face 4.3 pct CPI inflation in 2025 and 3.1 pct in 2026 - central bank survey
According to the latest Poland's central bank NBP's survey of professional forecasters, CPI in Poland will be 4.3 percent in 2025, with a typical forecast range of 3.3-5.5 percent, and in 2026 it will decline to 3.1 percent (distribution 2.2-4.4 percent).
"Respondents to the Macroeconomic Survey are fairly unanimous about the level of average annual CPI inflation this year. The central forecast for this year, obtained by aggregating their opinions, is 3.7 percent, while typical scenarios are in the range of 3.4 percent-3.9 percent," the results showed.
"In 2025, the experts forecast a temporary increase in inflation. For the forecasts for this year, the limits of the 50 percent probability range are 3.3 percent and 5.5 percent, while the central forecast is equal to 4.3 percent," it added.
In 2026, the experts forecast a decline in inflation, with typical scenarios ranging between 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent and the central forecast equal to 3.1 percent.
The experts polled by NBP expect real GDP growth in 2024 to be between 2.7 percent and 3.4 percent (range of typical scenarios), with a central forecast of 3.1 percent.
The central forecasts of economic activity for 2025-2026 are similar, at 3.4 percent and 3.3 percent respectively. For 2025, the typical scenarios are between 2.7 percent and 4.3 percent, and for 2026 - between 2.3 percent and 4.4 percent.
Experts surveyed by Poland's central bank NBP expect no change in the NBP reference rate this year.
The range of typical scenarios for the average level of the NBP reference rate in 2024 is very narrow (5.72 percent-5.77 percent), while the central forecast itself (5.75 percent) is equal to the current level of the rate.
In the next two years, experts surveyed expect the NBP reference rate to fall: the ranges of the typical scenarios are between 4.84 percent and 5.70 percent for 2025 and between 3.43 percent and 5.18 percent for 2026. The central scenarios for these years are 5.37 percent and 4.32 percent, respectively.
The experts' forecasts point to a stable registered unemployment rate of around 5 percent in the coming years, with a clearly declining annual growth rate of average nominal gross wages. According to the forecasts, nominal wage dynamics will decline from 12.6 percent in 2024 to 8.0 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026.
Experts of the Macroeconomic Survey also expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to stabilise in 2024-2026 at 4.27-4.30.
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