Poland's GDP likely to grow by nearly 3.6 pct in 2025, despite global trade turmoil (opinion)

"In line with our expectations, in May, the Monetary Policy Council returned to interest rate cuts after a long pause, reducing the rate by 50 basis points. In our opinion, this is not the last rate cut in Poland this year; we should see another one, probably on a smaller scale, in the second half of the year," Pachucki wrote in the PZU commentary.

"Lower interest rates are also a factor that will support the recovery in demand. Despite the turmoil in global trade, the outlook for GDP in Poland this year remains good. We estimate that in real terms, the growth of this aggregate could be close to 3.6 percent, somewhere in the vicinity, probably slightly above the potential rate," he added.

The chief economist at PZU pointed out that even in a very pessimistic scenario (assuming that the real GDP in subsequent quarters would remain at the level of the first quarter of 2025) Poland's economy would grow on average by 2.2 percent in 2025, i.e. slightly less than in 2024.

"And yet, the use of EU funds is accelerating, inflation is falling, which will be conducive to increasing the purchasing power of household incomes, and in the coming quarters, we will also gradually feel the positive effects of the loosening of fiscal rules in Germany, still our largest trading partner," Pachucki said.

tus/ ao/ nl/