Poland's Q1 GDP growth in line with forecasts, recovery slows somewhat in early-2025 (opinion)
Poland's economy grew by 3.2 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025, in line with analysts' expectations, according to a flash estimate by Poland's stats office GUS. In comments following the data, experts point out that economic recovery slowed down somewhat at the beginning of 2025. Private consumption was the main driver of growth.
"We will know the details at the beginning of June, but we already assume that private consumption, mainly services consumption, was the main driver of GDP growth," PKO BP's analysts wrote on X.
"Private investment probably did not make a significant contribution to the GDP growth rate, in contrast to public projects started, which may have played a larger role. Net trade acted as a drag on growth. For the year as a whole, we estimate that GDP will grow by 3.3 percent," it added.
Alior Bank's experts wrote on X that first quarter recovery was sustained, although its pace slowed relative to the fourth quarter 2024.
"Poland still stand out positively compared to Europe and the countries in the region. Today, GUS also revised the April CPI reading slightly upwards, from 4.2 percent year on year to 4.3 percent year on year," they wrote.
"We read this set of data as slightly cooling expectations for significant NBP rate cuts this year. Although we need to wait with deeper conclusions for the details of the GDP structure, which we will know at the end of May," they added.
ING BSK lender's brokerage analysts wrote on X that Poland's first quarter economic recovery has somewhat lost momentum in early 2025, adding that they are still waiting for investment to rebound after a weak 2024 which had a 2.2 percent decline in investment.
Pekao lender's experts assessed the GDP flash reading as "exceptionally dull" and "a spoonful of sugar", as it was exactly in line with the market forecasts.
"A good chance that Poland will turn out to be the fastest-growing EU country, not counting Ireland, which is doing statistical fiddles," they assessed ironically.
"In quarterly terms, GDP grew by 0.7 percent, making the current recovery episode the slowest in this century. This may change in the next quarter, of course, but overall, we are batting around the penultimate place," they added.
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Poland's Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.2 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025, against an increase of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. In quarterly terms, the GDP rose by 0.7 percent, following the 1.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected that Poland's GDP grew by 3.2 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025.
Poland's stats office GUS is slated to publish full GDP data for the first quarter on June 2.
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