Poland's hard coal demand to fall to around 22.5 mln tonnes in 2030

In the 2030 outlook, Poland's demand for hard coal is forecast to weaken to around 22.5 million tonnes, according to the active transformation scenario (WAM) in the National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK) by 2030. According to this scenario, a shift away from the use of hard coal in households is planned by 2040 at the latest.

"The demand for hard coal will be met by domestic mining, while imports will only play a supplementary role," the climate ministry wrote in the document's summary.

"It is therefore important to mine in an economically rational manner in a situation of projected weakening demand for this raw material (about 22.5 million tonnes in 2030)," it added.

It was pointed out that securing coal supply remains essential until new, stable zero-carbon sources are built, while the sector's energy transition must take into account the fairness of the transformation of coal mining regions.

In 2022, coal production was 46.5 million tonnes.

According to the assumptions for the active transformation scenario (WAM - with additional measures) of the National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK), national hard coal production is expected to be 13.09 million tonnes in 2030; compared to 13.86 million tonnes in the earlier baseline scenario WEM (with existing measures).

In 2040, the WAM projects only 2.66 million tonnes of domestic hard coal production.

"Special attention will be given to moving away from domestic coal use by 2040 at the latest, which will have a positive impact on air quality and reduce import dependency," WAM's executive summary emphasised.

"Regarding the use of hard coal, key decisions regarding the phasing out of generating units based on this raw material will take into account the balancing needs of the system and the social aspect for the mining region. The role of this raw material is expected to be minor in 2040," it added.

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