Control premium on WSE rises to 17.1 pct; no takeover bids in 2024
Between 2020 and 2024, the average control premium in takeover bids for shares of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange was 17.1 percent, according to consulting and auditing company KPMG data. In 2024 there were no tender offers aimed at acquiring control of a company.
A control premium is an additional amount above the fair value of shares that investors are willing to pay in order to gain the ability to decide on the strategic directions of a company's development.
A controlling stake gives, among other things, the right to appoint and dismiss members of the management board, set their remuneration rules, decide on the payment of dividends, and make decisions on the sale of assets or investment directions.
According to KPMG's analysis for 2020-2024, the average value of a successful tender offer resulting in the acquisition of control over a company reached PLN 796 million (EUR 187.2 mln).
Of the 113 tender offers analysed by KPMG, 103 were successful, including 29 that resulted in the acquisition of a controlling stake. The control premium was estimated at 17.1 percent.
It was reported that compared to the previous analysis covering the years 2019-2023, the control premium increased by 3.5 percentage points, reaching its highest level in recent years in Poland.
"The observed increase in the control premium in Poland – despite the absence of takeover bids in 2024 – raises the question of how much higher this premium could be if such bids did appear," said Tomasz Wisniewski, partner and head of the Central and Eastern Europe Valuation Team at KPMG in Poland, quoted in the report.
"So far, 2025 has not brought any new bids to confirm this hypothesis. Time will tell what the coming months will bring," he added.
In 2024, seven takeover bids were announced on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, but all of them came from shareholders who already held majority stakes. Their main goal was to increase their share to 100 percent and delist the companies from public trading.
KPMG in Poland periodically estimates the level of the premium associated with the acquisition of control based on a study of the tender offer market in Poland over a five-year period.
The analysis is based on successful tender offers for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which resulted in the acquisition of more than 50 percent of the shares in the company.
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