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Enea SAFitch assesses outlook for energy sector in CEE as neutral
The outlook for the energy sector in the CEE region is neutral and the leverage of utilities should be within the thresholds for ratings, representatives of rating agency Fitch told a webinar on Thursday.
"Overall, the vast majority of ratings are stable, which indicates that we do not expect the ratings to change, at least this year," said Arkadiusz Wicik, Senior Director for EMEA Utilities at Fitch Ratings.
As he pointed out, Fitch expects the leverage of energy utilities to increase due to increased capital expenditure on the energy transition, but the leverage should be within the thresholds for the ratings.
The presentation showed that listed power utility Energa could be slightly above the threshold in 2025.
"In this case, one large project is causing leverage to be temporarily above the guideline. So that's why Energa has a stable outlook. And also, Energa is supported by Orlen," Wicik pointed out.
Fitch assumes that the cash flows of energy companies in CEE will be supported by still healthy electricity prices.
As Arkadiusz Wicik assessed, electricity prices will stabilise in 2025 from the record levels of 2022 but will remain higher than prices in 2020-2021.
According to Fitch, corporate profitability in the generation segment may decline in 2025. The profitability of coal assets is expected to deteriorate.
"Coal generation, which is the largest source of electricity in Poland, will be under pressure because of market forces and because of the increasing share of renewables in the generation mix," Director Wicik pointed out.
As stated in the presentation, Fitch assumes no separation of coal assets in Poland.
Currently, Fitch's rating for PGE is ‘BBB’, for Enea ‘BBB’, for Tauron ‘BBB-’ and for Energa ‘BBB+’.
pel/ ao/ nl/