Poland's housing loan demand to last until Q2 2026, then decline to 4 pct in Q3 2027 - c. bank
Demand for housing loans will remain stronger until the second quarter of 2026 and then decline to 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2027, Poland's central bank NBP said in its newest financial system development report.
"After a significant slowdown in the housing loan growth in 2022 and early 2023, a return to the level of 7–9 percent year on year was observed in subsequent quarters," the National Bank of Poland pointed out in the report.
"In the first part of the forecast horizon for the current edition, a stabilisation of housing loan growth at about 7 percent year on year is expected, linked to the series of NBP's interest rate cuts started in May 2025," it added.
According to the NBP, this effect will dominate until the second quarter of 2026.
In subsequent quarters, a gradual decline in credit activity growth to 4.0 percent year on year is expected in the fourth quarter of 2027.
"The forecast trajectory during this period is mainly determined by the anticipated slowdown in economic growth," it added.
According to the data presented by Poland's central bank NBP, housing loan growth will be 6.97 percent year on year in the fourth quarter and 5.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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