Colder labour market data with no impact on full picture, paving way for further interest rate cuts (opinion)
Poland's lower-than-expected wage and employment readings for July do not change the picture of the labour market, where nothing bad is happening, although no recovery is visible, according to economists. As they have assessed, the slowdown in wages should pave the way for further interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council.
"The slowdown in average wage growth in July comes as no surprise, in the sense that it was the relatively high wage growth in June that was surprising. (...) It seems that there were some shifts in payments, e.g. bonuses and premiums, or even their accumulation in June, hence the month-on-month wage growth in July was not as spectacular and significantly lower than last year," chief analyst at Bank Pocztowy Monika Kurtek wrote in an e-mail.
She pointed out that a kind of 'swap' can also be seen in the employment data, as June surprised with an increase of 2,300 jobs and July saw a decline of 3,800 jobs. According to the expert, the situation will begin to change, but most likely only when companies really feel an acceleration in demand in the economy.
"The data published today does not significantly change the current picture of the labour market in Poland. Nothing particularly bad is happening, but there are still no signs of recovery," Kurtek assessed.
"From the MPC's point of view, this picture is reassuring and should not be an obstacle but may even be an incentive for another interest rate cut at the September meeting," she added.
The experts at mBank lender wrote on X that if they had to choose one piece of information most important one from an economic perspective from today, it would be a slowdown in wage momentum.
"(...) Of course, one swallow does not make a spring, and a return to lower levels may also be accidental. Either way, there is no upward march, and it seems that when non-market sectors (mining, media, agriculture) calm down, wage pressure simply falls," they assessed.
"This opens the door to further interest rate cuts, supporting the real economy. Time will tell whether the mechanism we feared after the latest readings will not resurface with higher economic activity. This is still very likely," mBank analysts added.
The analysts at Pekao lender pointed out that although the wage momentum is falling below 8 percent, they we would not expect such rapid declines in the coming months.
"On top of that, there is disappointment in employment and a decline in growth (...) and there are some strange things in the details of the reading... The disappointment is solely attributable to the 'Professional, scientific and technical activities' section, where as many as 10,000 jobs were lost month-on-month. Interestingly, half of the decline in this section was offset by growth in manufacturing," they wrote on X.
The experts at PKO BP lender emphasised that in month-on-month terms, the number of jobs fell for the first time since 2012, by nearly 4,000.
"Demand for labour remains frozen. The labour market data for July should strengthen the MPC's inclination to cut interest rates," they assessed.
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The average gross salary in the enterprise sector in July 2025 was PLN 8,905.63 (EUR 2,094.60), which represents an increase of 7.6 percent year on year and 0.3 percent month on month. Employment fell by 0.9 percent year on year and by 0.1 percent month on month.
The PAP Biznes consensus assumed a wage increase of 8.6 percent year on year and 1.2 percent on monthly basis. The experts expected employment to decline by 0.8 percent year on year and to remain unchanged in monthly terms.
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