OECD forecasts Poland's GDP at 3.4 pct in 2025, CPI at 5 pct
Poland's GDP will likely rise to 3.4 percent in 2025, and CPI inflation will reach 5 percent, according to the newest edition of the Economic Outlook report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD. The economists estimate that economic growth will slow down to 3 percent in 2026, with CPI at 3.9 percent.
"The economy should continue to recover as inflation falls. Although GDP has returned to pre-war levels by early 2024, there is still a significant degree of spare capacity, which should disappear as the economy grows," the report stated.
The OECD expects that inflation eventually return to target, but the planned withdrawal of the energy shield at the end of 2025 will slow its decline.
"As a result, headline inflation should average around 5 percent in 2025 and fall to 3.9 percent in 2026, reaching the upper range of the inflation target in the second half of 2026," it added.
"Core inflation should generally decline as labour market pressures ease and wage dynamics slow down. The recovery will be driven by domestic demand.
OECD economists estimate that private consumption should grow, supported by higher incomes and gradually declining interest rates.
"After a slowdown in investment dynamics in 2024, the disbursement of new EU funds should lead to a strong recovery in this area in 2025. Real GDP is projected to grow by (...) 3.4 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026," it said.
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