Poland's CPI with 50-pct probability in range of 1.7-4.5 pct in '26, 0.9-3.8 pct in '27 - c. bank projection
Poland's CPI inflation with a 50-percent probability will be in the range of 3.5–4.4 percent in 2025 (against 4.1–5.7 percent assumed in the March projection), 1.7–4.5 percent in 2026 (compared to 2.0–4.8 percent) and 0.9–3.8 percent in 2027 (against 1.1-3.9 percent), according to the latest projection by Poland's central bank NBP's Economic Analysis Department.
In turn, the annual GDP growth rate according to the projection will be in the range of 2.9-4.3 percent with 50 percent probability in 2025 (against 2.9-4.6 percent in the March projection), 2.1-4.1 percent in 2026 (against 1.9-4.0 percent) and 1.3-3.7 percent in 2027 (against 1.1-3.5 percent).
The July inflation and GDP projection based on the NECMOD model was prepared assuming unchanged Poland's central bank NBP interest rates and taking into account data available until June 9, 2025.
Below is the July central projection path as calculated by PAP Biznes:
| July projection | | | March projection | ||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
| CPI | 3.95 | 3.10 | 2.35 | | | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.5 | |
| GDP | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.50 | | | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
*The central path from the Poland's central bank NBP's July forecasts has been calculated as the midpoint of the forecast range provided in the MPC's announcement and may not coincide with the actual central path to be published by Poland's central bank NBP. The differences may be due to the asymmetric probability distribution of variables (GDP and inflation) over the forecast horizon.
On July 2, the Monetary Policy Council unexpectedly cut all Poland's central bank NBP interest rates by 25 basis points, reducing the reference rate to 5.0 percent.
A consensus survey conducted by PAP Biznes showed that only 3 out of 19 centres surveyed expected the Monetary Policy Council to cut interest rates in July.
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