Poland's CPI above target in 2025 and 2026, from 2027 permanently down to permissible deviation band - MinFin
Poland's CPI inflation will be above the target in 2025 and 2026, in 2027 falling permanently to range within the permissible band of deviations from Poland's central bank inflation target, the Ministry of Finance assessed in the document 'Multi-year Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2025-2029'.
According to the finance ministry, the average annual consumer price growth in 2025 will be 4.5 percent.
The MinFin estimates that a gradual decline in inflation is expected in the following quarters, driven by lower labour cost growth and a gradual decline in core inflation.
"The persistence of inflation above the Poland's target will be driven by energy prices, in particular gas prices for households, which have increased by 6 percent since January 1, 2025. Energy prices for residential consumers will remain unchanged due to the development of commodity prices on global markets," the finance ministry assessed.
"Therefore, there will be no need to extend the targets. An additional factor influencing the increase in inflation this year is the increase in excise duty on tobacco products," it added.
Next year, consumer inflation will average 3.8 percent.
"The main factors influencing the decline in inflation on an average annual basis will be a further gradual decline in core inflation and a limited increase in import prices, linked to declining energy commodity prices on world markets," the finance ministry wrote.
"Moreover, further gradual increases in excise duties are expected, in line with the amendment to the excise duty act adopted this year (the so-called roadmap)," it added.
According to Poland's Ministry of Finance, from 2027 onwards, the rate of growth of consumer prices will be permanently within the permissible band of deviations from the inflation target set by Poland's central bank NBP.
The average annual inflation will be 3.0 percent in 2027, 2.8 percent in 2028 and 2.5 percent in 2029.
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