Poland's economy continues moderate recovery in Q2 2025 (opinion)
In the second quarter of 2025, the Polish economy continued its moderate recovery; according to a flash estimate by Poland's stats office GUS, GDP grew by 3.4 percent year on year in this period, in line with market expectations. In their comments following the release of the data, economists indicate that economic growth should accelerate in the second half of the year.
"GDP growth in Q2 2025 was exactly as indicated by monthly data on retail sales and industrial production, i.e. good (3.4 percent), but not great," analysts at Pekao lender commented on X.
They added that private consumption and investment did not disappoint, but foreign trade most likely had a negative impact on growth.
The experts of Poland's largest lender by assets PKO BP pointed out that although the details of the reading will not be known until early September, they expect a positive contribution to growth from consumption and investment (with a likely revival in private spending).
"The data is in line with our macro scenario – throughout 2025, economic growth is likely to remain at a level similar to the current one, and 2026 should bring further acceleration," they wrote on X.
"(...) based on incoming monthly data, we estimate that economic growth was mainly driven by the service sectors, with industry still almost stagnant and a decline in construction activity," the analyst at ING BSK lender Adam Antoniak wrote in an e-mail.
He pointed out that on the expenditure side, private consumption remained the key component, probably accompanied by an increase in investment, mainly public, a positive contribution from changes in inventories and a negative contribution from net exports.
"In the second quarter of 2025, the economy accelerated and is on track to achieve GDP growth of 3.5 percent this year. Activity in the second quarter was boosted by the Easter effect, and maintaining dynamic economic growth in the second half of the year will require a further revival of investment, especially private investment," Antoniak added.
In his assessment, weak economic situation in the main export markets remains the main risk to growth, especially in the industrial sector.
"The reading came as no surprise – in the second quarter, we saw a continuation of moderate recovery. In the second half of the year, we expect growth to accelerate, with stronger consumer and investment demand," the experts at Alior Bank wrote on X.
They pointed out that although Poland has its problems, it still stands out positively in terms of economic growth compared to its immediate neighbours.
"In a nutshell, we are continuing the upward trend," mBank analysts concluded concisely on X.
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Poland's stats office GUS reported in its flash estimate on Wednesday that the Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.4 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, against an increase of 3.2 percent in the first quarter.
In quarterly terms, the GDP rose by 0.8 percent, following the 0.7 percent growth in the previous quarter.
Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected that Poland's GDP grew by 3.4 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025.
Poland's stats office GUS is slated to publish full GDP data for the second quarter on September 1.
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