Poland's Supreme Audit Office believes that MPC members could make expert adjustments to projections
Poland's Supreme Audit Office (NIK) believes that members of the Polish Monetary Policy Council could make expert adjustments when working on projections, according to the NIK's analysis of the implementation of the budget and monetary policy assumptions for 2024.
"The NIK maintains that the NECMOD model could also be used by MPC members to verify the extent to which scenarios based on their forecasts would affect the inflation projections, and allowing such analyses to be carried out would, to some extent, eliminate the issue of documenting adjustments in the calculations prepared by NBP analysts," wrote the NIK.
However, the NBP believes that allowing MPC members to actively participate in the preparation of inflation and GDP projections would create a risk of non-compliance with Article 17(4)(14) of the Act on the National Bank of Poland.
The NIK quotes the NBP's position, in which the bank states that the MPC is aware that expert adjustments are made in the NECMOD model and emphasises that the MPC receives a comprehensive description of the projections in the Inflation Report and additional materials to that document.
In addition, it was explained that during MPC meetings, MPC members review the presentation of the projection and may ask questions about the projection and its assumptions, including expert adjustments, directly to NBP employees participating in the meetings, obtaining detailed answers from them.
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