Polish businesses' inflation and PPI expectations for 2025 decline in Q2 - c. bank
In the second quarter of 2025, businesses' expectations for CPI inflation over the next 12 months decreased, according to the latest Poland's central bank NBP Quick Monitoring survey. PPI forecasts for the third quarter of 2025 and over the annual horizon have also declined.
"In the second quarter, expectations regarding CPI inflation (over the next 12 months) declined. The balance sheet value of these expectations was significantly lower than in the previous survey (19.3 points against 28.4 points in the first quarter of this year), and this decline occurred at a lower reference inflation level to which the surveyed entities referred (4.3 percent year on year versus 4.7 percent year on year in the previous survey)," NBP pointed out in the report on the survey.
"The decline in the balance sheet statistics was mainly due to a significant decrease in the share of entities expecting consumer price inflation to rise (to 17.5 percent from 24.8 percent), with a higher share of entities expecting it to fall (43.4 percent compared to 37.3 percent in the previous survey)," it added.
At the same time, the percentage of entities expecting inflation to remain at the current level was similar to that recorded in the previous quarter, at 19.7 percent.
Poland's central bank pointed out that the forecasts for Producer Price Index also declined, both for the third quarter of 2025 and for the entire year.
"Forecasts for the price growth of products offered for the third quarter of 2025 have decreased in most areas of economic activity, including in particular energy, construction and the production of durable consumer goods," NBP said in the report.
"The highest expected rate of price growth remained in consumer services, including non-market services and water supply and waste management. As in the previous survey, the lowest price growth forecasts were recorded in industry," it added.
The index of forecasts for changes in own prices over a 12-month horizon was also lower than in the previous quarter (43.3 points against 46.0 points previously).
"Expectations for PPI over the year declined in almost all sectors analysed, with the exception of transport and water supply, sewage and waste management. The strongest declines were recorded in energy, construction and trade," it added.
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