Polish economy shows resilience amid global turbulence as tariff issue loses relevance (interview)
Poland’s seasonally adjusted GDP growth near 4 percent highlights the economy’s resilience despite external challenges and domestic demographics, Poland's state development fund PFR's deputy head Mikolaj Raczynski assessed in an interview with PAP Biznes. In his view, the subject of tariffs will gradually lose relevance on the real economic agenda.
Raczynski highlighted that "Poland’s economy maintains solid growth," despite challenges such as floods affecting retail sales and demographic shifts moving demand toward services.
"Maintaining growth at around 4 percent demonstrates the resilience of the Polish economy amid the ongoing energy crisis, the war in Ukraine, and stagnation in Germany," he said.
PFR's deputy head pointed to a structural shift toward service consumption and productivity improvements, noting that "Poland still has a relatively high share of small firms, which may allow for further consolidation and efficiency gains."
He expects new investments and a German economic recovery to support continued growth.
Regarding tariffs, he stated that the issue "will gradually lose importance in the real economic agenda, although it may still be maintained in the political sphere."
He argued that the U.S. tariff policy "lacks a coherent, long-term strategy" and predicted that political pressure, especially from the Republican Party, would likely lead to a reduction in tariff rhetoric.
Raczynski noted that the trade war "has undermined trust in U.S. assets, and now every non-U.S. investor thinks twice before allocating more capital there."
He added that this could lead to capital seeking alternative destinations, with Europe potentially benefiting and strengthening its capital markets, especially in long-term investments. He also noted consumers may become more conscious of product origins, affecting U.S. firms and the dollar’s status.
"It is difficult to identify clear pressure for rapid rate cuts in Poland," the deputy head of Poland's state development fund PFR assessed.
"One of the factors supporting lower inflation has been the strengthening of the zloty, helped in part by renewed capital inflows into Poland - partly in response to the change in the political environment in Poland after the 2023 elections. This reduced price pressures on imported goods and supported the disinflationary trend," he added.
Raczynski estimated that the optimal real interest rate range for Poland is "probably between 0 and 2 percent," stressing the need for stability and medium-term inflation control.
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