Poland's and European e-commerce weaker, InPost assumes growth stronger than market
The e-commerce market in Poland and Europe is weaker, consumer demand is declining for reasons including geopolitics, the CEO of Amsterdam-listed parcel lockers operator InPost Rafal Brzoska assessed at a press conference. At the same time, he announced that InPost itself was to grow faster than the entire market in 2025.
"Our view of Poland assumes growth of the e-commerce market by single-digit percent. It seemed even in the first quarter that it would be rather between 5 and 9 percent. April, based on the first incoming data, shows that we are rather closer to 5 percent growth. May looks similar to April, we don't see any exceptional positive rebound in e-commerce itself so far," CEO Brzoska told a press conference following the release of InPost's financial report for the first quarter of 2025.
"Perhaps sentiment will improve in the third and fourth quarters, but we can see that Poles' savings are growing at a record rate, Poles are holding on to their pockets and not spending. We are facing an evident decline in consumer demand in Poland, and we are seeing this ahead of time in e-commerce," he added.
InPost's CEO pointed out that consumer sentiment across Europe is also weak.
"We are waiting to see what direction further developments will take, whether there will be a customs war, whether it will be resolved, what the resolution of the war in Ukraine will look like. All these things have an impact on consumers spending less," Brzoska said.
However, the CEO announced that InPost's performance will be better than the scale of growth of the e-commerce market in general.
"In each of our markets, we are budgeting to break through e-commerce growth levels," he said.
In Poland, InPost expects year-on-year volume growth of high single-digit percentages in the second quarter. In foreign markets, on the other hand, it counts on a 50 percent year-on-year increase in volume, which takes into account the consolidation of Yodel.
Throughout 2025, the adjusted EBITDA of the group will increase by 20-25 percent. Assumptions for the increase in adjusted EBITDA include a stabilised increase in this result in Poland at around 45 percent, an improvement in the euro zone and a decline in this result in Great Britain and Ireland due to the consolidation of Yodel, recently taken over by InPost.
The group assumes an increase in shares in all its markets this year. The volume is set to grow 25-30 percent year on year in 2025.
The group's revenues are expected to increase by 35-40 percent year on year in 2025. Revenues in Poland and the eurozone are expected to increase slightly, while in the UK they will triple thanks to the acquisition of Menzies and Yodel.
In the case of Poland, volume growth is expected to be a high single or low double percent depending on the pace of e-commerce development in the second half of the year. However, the growth is expected to be higher than the entire market.pr/ ao/