Polish inflation cools, strengthening grounds for October rate cut (opinion)
Poland’s preliminary CPI estimate for September showed inflation slowing down to 2.9 percent year on year, just below expectations of 3.0 percent. Analysts say that the figures leave their broader inflation outlook unchanged, but the stabilisation strengthens expectations for another rate cut in October.
Millennium analysts said September’s data leave their inflation outlook unchanged.
"The CPI index will remain within the NBP’s target range in the coming months. In October alone, inflation may stabilize at the September level," the experts assessed in their e-mail comment.
"A slight downward move is possible in November, although the scope for inflation to fall from current levels is limited," they added.
Erste analysts said the figures raise the likelihood of another 25-basis points rate cut by Poland's Monetary Policy Council before year-end.
"Although November remains the most likely date for such a move, the chances of an earlier cut have increased, as has the potential scale of easing. The latest data on wages, producer prices, and now consumer prices provide additional support for a more dovish stance by the Monetary Policy Council," they assessed.
ING BSK analysts noted that the stabilisation of inflation could give the MPC another reason to loosen policy, especially as they expect inflation to fall further in the coming months, to around 2.6 percent year on year at the end of 2025.
Experts at listed lender Pekao echoed that view on X, writing that "the headline figure from today’s reading takes us a step closer to a rate cut in October, though the breakdown does not support such a move."
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Poland's consumer prices increased by 2.9 percent year on year in the flash estimate, while remaining flat month on month in September.
Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected prices in September to rise by 3.0 percent year on year and by 0.2 percent on a monthly basis.
GUS is slated to publish its final, full data on Poland's inflation on October 15.
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