European Commission cuts GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2025 to 3.3 percent
The European Commission has lowered its economic growth forecasts for Poland in 2025 to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent, and in 2026 to 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent, according to the spring round of EC forecasts. The Commission lowered its HICP inflation estimate for Poland in 2025 to 3.6 percent from 4.7 percent, and for 2026 to 2.8 percent from 3.0 percent.
"In 2025, real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.3 percent. Private consumption is set to remain the key driver of growth as real disposable income continues to rise robustly. Following the decline in 2024, investment growth is set to pick up strongly, mainly due to higher EU-funded public investment. (…) In 2026, economic growth is projected to reach 3 percent. The contribution from private consumption is set to remain strong, but decrease compared to the previous year as real disposable income growth is projected to slow further," the European Commission said in a statement.
"The positive contribution from investment to growth reflects the absorption of EU funds, in particular in the final year of RRF implementation, supporting investment by the public and private sector. The negative contribution from net exports is projected to shrink further as exports recover. Risks to the outlook relate mainly to delays in the implementation of public investment and, on the upside, a faster growth of private consumption given the assumed relatively high savings rate by households as observed in 2024," it was added.
The Commission forecasts that HICP inflation in Poland will fall to 3.6 percent in 2025, compared to 4.7 percent in the previous round of estimates. The latest forecast includes statutory changes to energy shields in the second half of 2025, but their impact is to be limited by a sharp correction in energy prices on the markets.
"Inflation in services is projected to ease only gradually, reflecting continued wage pressures. Headline inflation is forecast to moderate to 2.8 percent in 2026, benefiting from a projected decrease in energy inflation and weak growth in imported non-energy goods prices," it was stated in the report.
The EC predicts that employment in Poland will remain broadly stable in 2025 and will increase in 2026, with demand for labour recovering in line with GDP growth as the working-age population continues to shrink due to ageing.
"After having reached a historic high in 2024, the activity rate is projected to continue increasing in 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate is therefore set to remain broadly stable and reach 2.8 percent in 2026. Growth in nominal compensation per employee is expected to slow from 12.3 percent in 2024 to 6.2 percent in 2025 and to 4.8 percent in 2026 as inflation moderates and minimum wage increases less than in 2023 and 2024," the European Commission said.
map/ kek/ nl/