Poland enters period of population decline, current trend is likely to be longer
Poland has entered a period of population decline, the current trend will be a longer one, the Polish stats office GUS said in a study.
"The recorded decline in the number of births in 2023 confirms that Poland has entered a period of another population decline (which already took place temporarily between 1997 and 2007), but the current one is likely to be a longer trend," the report writes.
GUS wrote in the study that births are the key factor influencing the number and structure of the population.
"In order to ensure stable demographic development of the country, in a given year - for every 100 women aged 15-49 - there should be on average at least 210-215 children born, currently there are about 116. This state of affairs is mainly due to young people postponing the decision to start a family (this process was initiated in the 1990s) and then having fewer children or even living alone," wrote the GUS.
According to the GUS, the state of the birth rate depression has lasted for almost 30 years - since 1990, the level of the fertility rate has been below 2, i.e. it does not guarantee a simple replacement of generations.
"In 2022, 305,000 (births - PAP) have been registered, while in 2023, the number of live births decreased by about 33,000 from the previous year and amounted to 272,000. This is the lowest number of births recorded in the entire post-war period," the stats office wrote.
"It is worth emphasizing that we should not expect a return to a high level of fertility reaching significantly above the value of 2. The persistence of a low fertility rate over a long period of time risks entering a so-called “low fertility trap”, from which it is very difficult to exit," it added.
The stats office states that changes in fertility patterns shape the average age of mothers at birth.
As a consequence of the increase in fertility in older childbearing age groups, there has been an increase in the median age of women giving birth, which in 2023 was 31, compared to around 26 in 1990-2000. During this period, the average age of giving birth to the first child also increased - by six years - and was 29 in 2023.
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