Poland to see rate cuts early Q3, September at latest, 50-100 bps in ‘25, says MPC member
Interest rate cuts would take place at the beginning of the third quarter, in September at the latest, with 50-100 basis points for the whole of 2025, assessed Poland's Monetary Policy Council member Ludwik Kotecki, quoted by Puls Biznesu daily.
"In my opinion, this will happen this year, although Poland's central bank NBP governor Adam Glapinski is now denying it," said Kotecki, quoted by Puls Biznesu.
"It will happen at the beginning of the third quarter, in September at the latest. In my view, the scale of the cuts is a minimum of 50 basis points, because there is room for that. The maximum could be 100 points, but this may be difficult this year," he added.
The MPC member continued that monetary policy would remain restrictive not only due to the level of interest rates, but also due to the strengthening of the zloty and quantitative tightening, i.e. the lack of rolling over of rescue (Covid-19) bonds in Poland's central bank NBP's portfolio.
According to Kotecki, in order to achieve an optimal policy mix, fiscal policy should be slightly more restrictive and monetary policy looser.
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