Poland's economic data for Q4 2024 signals rebound in GDP to around 3 pct y/y (opinion)
The complete set of data from the Polish economy for the fourth quarter of 2024 signals a rebound in GDP growth to around 3 percent year on year, against 2.7 percent in the third quarter, economists assess.
"The December retail sales growth, closing the fourth quarter of 2024, indicates a quarterly growth of around 2 percent year on year. This is a clear improvement on the third quarter, when retail sales showed a decrease of 1.5 percent year on year," the chief economist of Bank Pocztowy Monika Kurtek pointed out.
"That indicates a return of consumption growth to around 3 percent. The GDP growth, therefore, improved in the fourth quarter of 2024 and amounted to at least 3 percent year on year," she added.
ING BSK analysts estimate that the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to 2.8 percent year on year.
"Looking at the expenditure side, the economy was still mainly driven by consumption (private and public) and supplies rebuilding. The contribution of investment to GDP growth was close to zero and the deterioration of the foreign trade balance translated into a negative contribution of net exports," they assessed in the report following the data release.
"In 2025, we expect the economic growth at 3.2 percent. Private consumption should grow at a similar pace to 2024, while we expect a significant intensification in terms of investment activity, which should be supported by the implementation of projects under the national recovery plan KPO and co-financed by EU cohesion policy funds," the experts added.
According to ING lender analysts, in 2025, Poland will still stand out positively thanks to the domestic demand.
"Our growth forecast for 2025 does not look impressive in historical terms, but a comparison to the region shows that Poland will still stand out positively, thanks to domestic demand. Few countries have such a growth engine today," the analysts assessed.
According to Millennium experts, the published set of data from the domestic economy in December is neutral from the point of view of the Monetary Policy Council.
"Members of the Council are clearly communicating their intent to stabilise interest rates in the coming months. We assume that the cycle of interest rate cuts will be resumed in the second half of the year," Millennium analysts assessed in the report.
"However, we would like to emphasise that the timing of the first cut is highly uncertain, due to the variability in the communication of the MPC," they stressed.
According to their report, taking into account low unemployment, still elevated wage growth, the potential increase in inflation expectations in the second half of 2024, and uncertainty around the path of energy prices, Poland's interest rates will fall by no more than 100 basis points in 2025.
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In December 2024, Poland's retail sales at constant prices increased by 1.9 percent year on year and by 9.9 percent month on year, the stats office GUS reported on Thursday.
The analysts polled by PAP Biznes had expected an increase of 3.9 percent year-on-year in constant prices and a month-on-month growth of 11.8 percent.
Retail sales in current prices last month rose by 2.7 percent year on year. The economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected an annual increase of 4.6 percent.
tus/ kek/ ao/