Poland's GDP to grow 3.5 pct in 2025, interest rate down 100 bps - EFC survey

Economists surveyed by the EFC lowered their expectations for economic growth this year to 2.9 percent year on year in the current round, compared to a June forecast of 3.2 percent year on year.

As for the forecast for 2025, it has also been revised slightly downwards, to 3.5 percent year on year, against a June forecast of 3.8 percent year on year. The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 3.6 percent year on year.

Investment, according to the EFC forecast, is projected to grow by 7.9 percent year on year in 2025, while real gross fixed capital formation is expected to grow by more than 7 percent year on year in 2026.

Survey respondents expect private consumption to grow by 3.8 percent in 2024, by 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.4 percent in 2026.

EFC survey respondents expect a further decline in the unemployment rate to 3 percent at the end of 2024, 2.9 percent at the end of 2025 and 2026 and 2.7 percent at the end of 2027.

The experts surveyed expect wage growth in the economy to slow down: from 12.9 percent year on year in nominal terms in 2024, to just over 8 percent year on year in 2025, 6.7 percent in 2026 and 5.6 percent in 2027.

According to the EFC's survey, average annual inflation will slow to 3.6 percent year on year in 2024 (it was seen at 4 percent in June this year), while it will rebound to 4.4 percent year on year in 2025 and fall to 3.1 percent year on year in 2026 and hover around the 2.5 percent inflation target in 2027.

In the wake of falling inflation, interest rates will be cut. The average expectation of respondents is that Poland's central bank NBP's reference rate will be cut from the current 5.75 percent to 4.7 percent at the end of 2025, then to 3.8 percent at the end of 2026 and 3.50 percent at the end of 2027.

The cut-off date of the survey is December 6 this year.

tus/ han/ ao/