Poland's January employment data influenced by change in sample of surveyed companies (opinion)
The stronger-than-expected decline in employment in January may be due to the annual change in the Polish stats office GUS' sample of companies included in the survey, while wages confirmed the downward trajectory signalled by the December reading, economists comment.
"Is the January reading a sign of a slump in labour market sentiment? No, it is just the result of the annual change in the sample of business sector companies surveyed by GUS," Bank Pekao analysts wrote on X.
"So today's reading does not say much about the current state of the Polish labour market, but it will weigh on employment data throughout 2025," they added.
mBank analysts assessed on X that wage growth should be at around 7-8 percent at the end of 2025, adding that in the long-term, wage growth will be translated to service inflation.
"Poland's MPC has less and less reasons to keep interest rates unchanged," they added.
The Polish Economic Institute PIE also underlined that the January reading is skewed by the change in the sample of companies.
"Other GUS quarterly data such as number of job vacancies suggest rather an upturn in the labour market," the analysts at PIE assessed.
---------------------------------
Poland's average gross wages in the business sector rose by 9.2 percent year on year and fell by 3.8 percent month on month to PLN 8,482.47 (EUR 2,040.03).
The average employment fell by 0.9 percent year on year and stayed flat in monthly terms.
tus/ han/ nl/
