Poland's Q4 2024 GDP growth around 3.5 pct, further growth in 2025 supported by investments (opinion)
Poland's stats office GUS' preliminary GDP data in 2024 suggest that in only the fourth quarter GDP growth amounted to 3.5 percent, and its structure indicates that this growth should continue at the beginning of 2025, economists estimate. Economists say that this years growth will be supported by investments.
Listed lender ING BSK's economists assessed that Polish GDP should rise above 3 percent due to continued growth of private consumption and a rebound in investments caused by EU funds under the national recovery plan KPO coming into the economy.
"We see around PLN 50 billion going to Poland from donations from EU funds under the national recovery plan KPO and nearly PLN 40 billion from loans. We also expect around PLN 45 billion from EU funds earmarked for 2021-2027," they wrote.
Bank Pocztowy economist Monika Kurtek said that in the fourth quarter of 2024 GDP growth likely came out to 3.4 percent year on year.
"On average throughout 2025 GDP can come out to around 3.7 percent, whereas in the first half of the year GDP will grow more than 3 percent and in the second half more than four," Kurtek said.
Bank Pekao analysts said that in their view, the Polish economy should grow 4 percent in 2025.
tus/ han/ nl/