UPDATE: S&P affirms Poland at A- with stable outlook
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Poland's long-term foreign currency rating at ‘A-’ with a stable outlook, the agency said in a statement.
"The stable outlook reflects the balance between Poland's resilient medium-term growth perspectives over the next two years against the risk of rising economic vulnerabilities related to the country's rapidly rising debt", the agency said.
As stated, the agency could lower the ratings on Poland if its medium-term growth prospects deteriorated significantly, "possibly coupled with rising macroeconomic imbalances or renewed external shocks, including unexpected spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine war".
"We could also lower the ratings if the war escalated, weighing more heavily on Poland's public finances, economic growth, and presenting additional security risks", the statement reads.
On the other hand, S&P could raise the ratings if fiscal deficits reduce to significantly lower levels, putting the government's debt levels on a downward path.
"A sustained track record of institutional and governance improvements, ensuring fiscal prudence and preserving the flow of EU funds and net foreign direct investment (FDI), could also be positive for the ratings", it added.
S&P expects Poland's economy to expand by 3.3 pct in 2025 and 3.2 pct in 2026. The agency projects net government debt will trend up to 67 pct of GDP by 2028 from 48 pct in 2024.
The agency projects Poland's general government deficit to widen to almost 7 pct of GDP this year. For 2026, S&P expects the general government deficit to slightly reduce to 6.5 pct of GDP.
In September 2025, rating agency Fitch revised the outlook on Poland's long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to negative from stable, affirming the IDR at 'A-' and Moody's changed Poland's outlook to negative from stable, affirming A2 ratings.
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