InPost's Q1 adj. EBITDA above consensus, expected to grow by 20-25 pct over 2025
Amsterdam-listed parcel lockers operator InPost's adjusted EBITDA amounted to PLN 940.2 million (EUR 221.14 mln), up from PLN 760.1 million (EUR 178.8 mln) a year earlier. The PAP Biznes consensus was for an EBITDA of PLN 918.1 million (EUR 215.94 mln). For the whole of 2025, the group expects adjusted EBITDA to increase by 20-25 percent.
"In line with our expectations, the first quarter of 2025 was very successful. Shipment volumes grew by 12 percent, which is above the growth of the markets in all countries where we operate," said InPost's CEO Rafal Brzoska, quoted in the press release.
"The key drivers of volume growth in Poland were the SME sector and, for the Eurozone countries, the B2C segment. Also in the UK, B2C shipments are increasingly visible in the results," he added.
As the CEO pointed out, in the first quarter of 2025, InPost deployed almost 3,000 new devices, therefore surpassing the level of 50,000 Paczkomat parcel machines.
"We continue to focus on international expansion - in April we acquired Yodel, a major logistics player in the UK. This transaction has strengthened InPost's position as the third largest logistics provider in this market. We are also strengthening our relationships with merchants," Brzoska said.
"We recently announced a multi-year contract with Vinted, Europe's leading second-hand clothing trading platform, while in Poland we improved our offering to Amazon. This week, we started a partnership with the UK's leading e-commerce shop, ASOS, offering a unique next day delivery service in the UK market to PUDO outlets and Paczkomat machines," he added
InPost’s adjusted EBITDA margin in the first quarter was 31.9 percent, up from 31.3 percent a year ago.
The group's revenue in the first quarter reached PLN 2.952 billion (EUR 694.3 mln), in line with PAP Biznes consensus, up from PLN 2.426 billion (EUR 570.6 mln) in the prior year period. The result was mainly driven by the UK and Ireland segment, which posted growth of 145 percent year on year, while Poland and the Eurozone segments saw increases of 11 percent and 14 percent year on year, respectively.
InPost’s EBIT rose by 7.6 percent to PLN 461.6 million (EUR 108.6 mln), in line with the PAP Biznes consensus.
The group's net profit from continuing operations reached PLN 183.7 million (EUR 43.2 mln), below the market expectations and the result of PLN 256.3 million (EUR 60.3 mln) in the prior year period.
In Poland, InPost expects year-on-year volume growth in the second quarter by high single-digit percentages.
The group is targeting share growth in all its markets in 2025. Volume is expected to grow by 25-30 percent in annual terms this year.
Group revenues are expected to grow by 35-40 per cent year-on-year in 2025. Revenues in Poland and the Eurozone are expected to increase slightly, while in the UK they will triple thanks to the acquisition of Menzies and Yodel.
For Poland, volume growth is expected to be a high single or low double percent, depending on the pace of e-commerce growth in the second half of the year. However, this is expected to be higher than the overall market growth.
InPost plans to accelerate the development of its parcel machine network to more than 14,000, including around 3,000 in Poland, around 4,000 in France and the Benelux countries, around 4,500 in the UK, around 2,000 on the Iberian Peninsula and around 1,000 in Italy.
The group's CAPEX in 2025 will be around PLN 1.8 billion (EUR 423.36 mln), 60 percent of which is to be spent on the production of Paczkomat parcel machines and their installation.
For the full year 2025, InPost expects positive group cash flow (excluding acquisitions and mergers) and net leverage at similar levels to 2024.
pr/ ao/
