Poland's CPI at 4.3 pct in 2025, 3.3 pct in 2026 - central bank
Poland's CPI inflation will be 4.3 percent in 2025, with a typical forecast distribution of 3.5-5.2 percent, and in 2026, it will fall to 3.3 percent (distribution 2.3-4.5 percent), according to the latest macroeconomic survey conducted by Poland's central bank NBP.
"Experts participating in the macroeconomic survey agree that average annual CPI inflation in 2024 will be 3.7 percent (central forecast; the limits of the 50 percent probability range are 3.6 percent and 3.8 percent)," NBP wrote in the commentary to the survey.
"According to these experts, inflation will rise in 2025, only to fall again the following year. Typical scenarios for 2025 are between 3.5 percent and 5.2 percent, while for 2026 they range between 2.3 percent and 4.5 percent," it added.
Central forecasts for these years are 4.3 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively.
The growth rate forecasts for 2024 are between 2.6 percent and 3 percent. The central forecast for 2024 is 2.8 percent.
Between 2025 and 2026, experts expect the pace of economic activity to accelerate. The limits of the 50 percent probability range for both years are close to each other (equal to 2.7-4 percent and 2.3-4.1 percent, respectively), and the central forecasts are identical (3.3 percent).
Respondents to the NBP's macroeconomic survey expect the average annual NBP reference rate in 2025 to be between 4.95 percent and 5.72 percent (the range of typical scenarios), with a central forecast of 5.39 percent.
For 2026, the limits of the range are 3.60 percent and 5.11 percent, and the central forecast is 4.29 percent.
According to the forecasts, nominal wage growth will be 13.4 percent in 2024, 8.2 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026.
The unemployment rate, on the other hand, will decline slightly (from 5.1 percent in 2024 to 4.9 percent in 2026).
Experts also expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to stabilise in 2025-2026 at 4.27-4.30.
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