Poland's GDP growth to be lowered by trade war in short term (opinion)
A war on tariffs between US and the EU could reduce Poland's GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and by 0.9 percentage points in 2026, according to EY consultancy analysts. Long-term effects on Poland's GDP are expected to be neutral, given EU tariffs align with global averages.
"The EY Economic Analysis Team estimates that Poland's GDP growth could be 0.2 percentage points lower this year and as much as 0.9 percentage points lower next year due to tariff changes," EY wrote in a commentary to its analysis.
"Poland will suffer less than other EU countries, where GDP growth could slow by 1.4 percentage points in 2026," it added.
The consultancy assessed that exports may decline by 2.5 percentage points in 2026, followed by a decline in investment growth of 1.5 percentage points.
EY analysts also highlighted that global trade could shrink by over 5 percent compared to scenarios without tariffs.
Marek Rozkrut, EY's Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia, explained that the indirect effects of the trade war, such as reduced investments and consumption due to uncertainty, would outweigh the direct impact of tariffs on economic activity.
"At the same time, the impact of tariffs on economic activity will be somewhat delayed and will only hit with full force in 2026," he added.
pat/ nl/ ao/