Poland's investment growth to accelerate to 5.9 pct in 2025-2026 - c. bank projection
Poland's investment growth will accelerate to + 5.9 percent in 2025-2026, followed by a 1.9 percent drop in 2027, according to the newest projection by Poland's central bank NBP.
"After a fall in 2024, growth in gross fixed capital formation will pick up significantly in 2025-2026. Investment demand in this period will be supported by increased absorption of EU funds under the 2021-2027 financial framework and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan [Poland's recovery plan KPO - PAP ed.] In 2027, gross fixed capital formation will decrease as the expenditure of funds from the NextGenerationEU instrument comes to an end," NBP assessed.
"In the case of enterprises, the recovery in investment activity in 2025 is confirmed by survey data, indicating a rise in the percentage of firms declaring a continuation of the commenced investment projects and an increase in the scale of investment in the horizon of a quarter and a year," it added.
Furthermore, as Poland's central bank pointed out, over the projection horizon, expenditure related to the ongoing energy transformation of the Polish economy is also expected to increase, including spending allocated for the development of offshore wind farms in the Baltic, as well as the construction and modernisation of transmission grids.
According to announcements, the estimated value of investments in offshore wind energy will amount to PLN 130 billion (EUR 30.5 bln), while the planned investments in transmission infrastructure in 2025-2034 are expected to amount to PLN 64 billion (EUR 15 bln).
"Purchases of military equipment will also contribute to raising the investment path. However, the growth rate of housing investment will remain at a relatively low level in 2025-2027 due to the assumption of unchanged NBP interest rates adopted in the projection," NBP assessed.
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