UPDATE: Poland's GDP to grow in H2 2025 at similar pace to H1 - c. bank
Poland's GDP growth in the second half of 2025 will be similar to that in the first half, followed by a slight slowdown in economic activity, according to the monetary policy guidelines published by the central bank NBP on Friday. In 2026, annual average growth in consumer prices, including also core inflation, will be lower than in 2025.
"Forecasts point to a continuation of GDP growth in the second half of 2025 at a level close to that of the first half of 2025. Subsequently, economic activity growth is set to slow down somewhat, while growing investment will support GDP in both 2025 and 2026," Poland's central bank stated in the document.
"Increasing consumption will be driven by the favourable labour market situation, including low unemployment amid an expected gradual decline in wage growth," it added.
The National Bank of Poland pointed out that, at the same time, economic developments abroad, including in Germany, will be a factor affecting economic growth.
The authors of the report assessed that in 2026, annual average growth in consumer prices, including also core inflation, will be lower than in 2025.
"In July 2025, CPI inflation in Poland fell below the upper bound for deviations of the NBP inflation target. Inflation developments in the coming quarters will largely depend on growth in administered energy prices, particularly in view of the fact that core inflation is expected to decline only slowly," the central bank wrote.
"Available forecasts indicate that in 2026, annual average growth in consumer prices, including also core inflation, will be lower than in 2025," it added.
pat/ ao/