Poland's cement industry expects growth in 2025, increasing import concerns
The Polish cement manufacturing industry expects an increase in production in 2025 of around 5 percent to nearly 18 million tonnes, debate participants assessed during a presentation of EY Polska report. Challenges include maintaining competitiveness and growing imports from non-EU countries without restrictive climate legislation.
"There are two factors that spark optimism, the projected economy growth (...) and unblocking of EU funds under the national recovery plan KPO," the head of the Polish cement producers lobby SPC assessed during the debate following EY Poland's report 'The impact of the cement industry on Poland's economy'.
"We are confident that there will be demand for infrastructure, it is a question of financing and the general economic climate. Thus, we forecast further 5 percent growth this year, meaning we will reach close to 18 million tonnes of cement," he added.
Poland's stats office GUS reported that at the end of November 2024, Poland produced 16.5 million tonnes of cement, up by 5.6 percent year on year.
The main factor impacting Poland's cement production volume was a weak construction industry and a significant increase in imports from Ukraine.
According to EY Poland's report, cement imports from Ukraine increased from 300 tonnes in 2015 to almost 332,000 tonnes in 2023. Ukraine's share of cement imports to Poland in 2023 reached 29 percent, almost equalling the volume of supplies from Germany.
It was added that Ukrainian producers are not bound by the restrictive climate regulations introduced in the EU and do not bear the costs associated with CO2 emissions. This realises the essence of carbon leakage - a further increase in cement imports to Poland from countries without restrictive regulations.
According to experts, it is precisely the competitiveness of the Polish industry that is the challenge for the domestic cement sector.
"There are differences in climate policy between EU and non-EU countries. The closest to us is Ukraine (...) and from there cement is exported to Poland. The competition is ruthless," Kieres assessed.
Earlier on Thursday, Poland's stats office GUS reported that construction and assembly production decreased by 8.0 percent year on year in December 2024, against the PAP Biznes consensus for a 11.9 percent decrease.
Poland's construction output in December rose by 30.6 percent month on month, while analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes had expected a 25.2 percent monthly increase.
Bank ING economists point out that in 2025, the amount of subsidies that beneficiaries could receive from is PLN 95 bln (EUR 22.4 bln) against PLN 40 bln (EUR 9.4 bln) in 2024.
All economists expect a rebound in construction sector growth coming from public investments in the second half of 2025.
Damian Kazmierczak, a member of the Polish association of construction employers PZPB, expressed his uncertainty for the private construction sector.
"The economic situation there will depend on many factors: the global and European economic situation, which will be influenced by the US and President Trump's decisions; the level of interest rates and the growth rate of the Polish economy; and the further course of the war in Ukraine," he said.
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