Poland's February retail sales disappoint, but consumption outlook still rather optimistic
Poland's retail sales data for February strongly disappointed; shopping activity in early 2025 is similar to 2024 levels, point out economists in their comments following the data. However, they point out that the outlook for consumption for this year continues to be rather optimistic.
PKO BP analyst Marta Petka-Zagajewska told PAP Biznes that consumption is growing at a rate similar to that observed in the previous year and is, for the time being, not showing solid grounds for acceleration,
"(...) which, by the way, we do not particularly expect in the perspective of 2025.
A high degree of caution is still evident in purchasing decisions," she said.
"As of today, this reading does not shake our scenario of economic growth this year at 3.5 percent. If we see disappointing data again in March it will be a signal for caution, but there does not seem to be any basis for that," she added.
Bank Pocztowy's Monika Kurtek wrote that February's retail sales readings are weak due to the surprisingly good reading in January.
"February's retail sales data cooled expectations of a consumer boom. Households are spending more prudently and more frugally, taking advantage of periods of promotions and sales," she said.
"This means that consumption will continue to grow at a steady moderate pace, with consumption, together with investment accelerating at the same time, contributing around 3.7 percent to GDP growth this year," she added.
ING BSK, mBank and Pekao analysts all wrote on X that the February slump was caused by the strong reading in January, emphasising that purchasing activity at the beginning of 2025 is similar to the fourth quarter of 2024.’
Analysts at the Polish Economic Institute PIE say that the outlook for consumption for 2025 continues to be rather optimistic.
"Wage growth should exceed inflation by around 4 pct. Given the weaker need to rebuild savings than a year ago, consumption should also grow by around 3.5 percent. This result will be similar to the rest of the CEE region," they wrote on X.
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Poland's retail sales in fixed prices decreased in real terms by 0.5 percent year on year and fell by 6.0 percent month on month in February. February saw retail sales in current prices rising by 0.6 percent year on year.
Economists polled by PAP Biznes had expected February's retail sales to grow in real terms by 3.2 percent year on year and to decrease by -2.8 percent month on month.
The experts had forecast a 5.0 percent year-on-year growth in current prices in February
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